Anthropic sent a draft IPO prospectus to the Securities and Exchange Commission on June 11. Five months on, it still waits to post publicly.
The delay let the numbers leak out anyway. Reporters have already seen the figures the filing will confirm. They show a $16.3 billion half of revenue, an $80.7 billion loss and cloud deals worth hundreds of billions7.
Anthropic picked the Nasdaq for its listing and is aiming for mid-November25. Does the filing even matter anymore, once the numbers are already public?
What the Revenue Line Actually Shows
Anthropic now reports real quarters instead of annualized guesses. The first quarter of 2026 brought $4.7 billion. Revenue more than doubled in the second, to $11.5 billion4. By the third, it reached $16.8 billion, Anthropic told investors in October5.
Add the first two and you get $16.2 billion, close to the $16.3 billion the draft S-1 reports for the same half47. The two separate disclosures agree.
Anthropic's quarterly revenue triples in three quarters, to $16.8 billion
Anthropic's reported quarterly revenue, U.S. dollars, first three quarters of 2026
Each column is one quarter's revenue; the magenta column is the latest quarter reported.
Sources: TheNextWeb [4]; The Motley Fool [5]. Chart by Ryan Elliott Dennis.
The numbers behind this chart
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Q1 | $4.7B |
| Q2 | $11.5B |
| Q3 | $16.8B |
A year earlier, the same six months brought in $1.1 billion7. Enterprise demand for Claude, ahead of consumer subscriptions, drives most of the jump, TheNextWeb reported from the filing4.
The Loss That Is Mostly Paper
That headline number looks alarming on its own. Anthropic lost $80.7 billion in the first half of the year7.
Most of that sum stayed on the balance sheet. About $72 billion comes from marking up the value of convertible notes, debt that can turn into stock, as Anthropic's price climbs7. Revaluing the notes only changes the books; the cash stays in place. Accounting rules just require the entry.
Subtract the paper charge and the real operating loss falls to about $8.7 billion against $16.3 billion of revenue7. Anthropic also told investors it reached positive adjusted operating income and free cash flow for a second straight quarter in the third5.
Who Supplies the Compute, and What It Costs
Three cloud deals anchor the bill. Anthropic has agreed to spend roughly $111 billion with Google Cloud and $110 billion with Amazon Web Services, the draft filing shows7. Microsoft Azure gets $31 billion more. Each deal runs seven to ten years.
Anthropic commits $110 billion or more each to Google, Amazon and Microsoft
Anthropic's committed cloud spending by provider, over seven to ten years, from its draft S-1
Each bar is one cloud provider's committed spending; the three bars add to about $450 billion.
These three cloud deals total about $450 billion. Anthropic's possible future compute spending, including deals still under negotiation, could reach $750 billion.
Source: TheNextWeb [7]. Chart by Ryan Elliott Dennis.
The numbers behind this chart
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Google Cloud | $111B |
| Amazon Web Services | $110B |
| Microsoft Azure | $31B |
That is about $450 billion already committed. Add infrastructure Anthropic has promised but left unsigned, and the total could reach $750 billion, TheNextWeb reported7.
Each deal carries an investment alongside the spending. Amazon put $5 billion more into Anthropic in April, on top of $8 billion already invested11. Up to $20 billion more depends on how much Anthropic actually spends with AWS. Microsoft and Nvidia together pledged up to $15 billion toward the Azure agreement.
Amazon chief executive Andy Jassy called the arrangement mutual. "Anthropic's commitment to run its large language models on AWS Trainium for the next decade reflects the progress we've made together on custom silicon," he said10. Anthropic's Dario Amodei credited demand, over ambition, for the spending. "Our users tell us Claude is increasingly essential to how they work, and we need to build the infrastructure to keep pace with rapidly growing demand," he said.
Who Owns How Much
Google holds roughly 14 percent of Anthropic, capped by contract at 159. The stake is worth about $135 billion at the last private price. It leaves voting rights and a board seat off the table.
Amazon's stake runs higher but stays undisclosed. Public filings put it in the mid-to-high teens by percentage9. Fortune estimated its paper value at $135 billion to $160 billion after the Series H round.
Those two alone could hold a quarter or more of the company once it lists. Both have stayed quiet about selling.
Who Actually Controls the Company
A public listing keeps voting control away from the public. Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust, a panel of outside trustees paid for their time alone, elects four of the company's seven directors13.
Shareholders, including anyone who buys stock in the IPO, elect only three. A single Class F share held by Anthropic's founders carries the deciding vote on top of that13. Dario Amodei personally owns about 2 percent of the company.
Three trustees sit on the panel today. Neil "Buddy" Shah leads the Clinton Health Access Initiative, and Richard Fontaine leads the Center for a New American Security13. Former Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke joined as the third trustee in July.
Columbia Law School's Marco Mari read the design as protection for the trustees themselves, built against outside pressure. "This would shield those entrusted with pursuing the company's public benefit mission from electoral challenge by public investors, including those who may seek stronger safeguards in the public interest," he wrote12.
Every funding round raised the stakes riding on that control. Anthropic's valuation stood at $61.5 billion after its Series E round in March 202517. It then reached $183 billion, $380 billion and $965 billion at each round after, the last one in May151416.
Anthropic's valuation climbs from $61.5 billion to $965 billion in 14 months
Anthropic's post-money valuation at each priced funding round, March 2025 to May 2026
Each point is one funding round; the line rises faster with each one, and the last point is Anthropic's most recent private price.
Sources: Anthropic [14]; Anthropic [15]; TechCrunch [16]; TechCrunch [17]. Chart by Ryan Elliott Dennis.
The numbers behind this chart
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| Series E | $61.5B |
| Series F | $183.0B |
| Series G | $380.0B |
| Series H | $965.0B |
The Case For and Against the Price
Bulls point to the growth rate. Kate Leaman, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, argues bankers are pricing the deal too cautiously. "If bankers price this assuming growth decelerates hard from here, and it instead merely slows to something still absurd, say another three or four times over the next year, the IPO price will look conservative within two quarters," she wrote8.
Bears point to the margin. Kyle Guske II, senior investment analyst at New Constructs, doubts the business model underneath the growth. "Since the arrival of open-source models, it's been clear that the closed models would struggle to generate profits," he wrote, valuing Anthropic as much as 93 percent below its $2 trillion target6.
Both sides agree on the facts: revenue is rising fast, and margin is only beginning to show. They split on how far to trust the second trend before the first one slows.
What to do
Read the real filing before trusting anyone's summary of it, including this one. Open the S-1 on SEC EDGAR once it posts. Go straight to the cash flow statement, where the convertible-note charge leaves the real number exposed.
Check your own exposure, too. Anyone holding Amazon or Google stock already owns a slice of Anthropic's upside and its risk, long before any IPO shares trade.
By the numbers
- Revenue: $16.3 billion for the first half of 2026, against $1.1 billion a year earlier7.
- Headline loss: $80.7 billion for the same half, of which about $72 billion is an accounting charge7.
- Operating loss: about $8.7 billion once that charge is set aside7.
- Cloud commitments: roughly $450 billion across Google Cloud, Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure over seven to ten years7.
- Google's stake: 14 percent of Anthropic, capped at 15 percent by contract9.
- Board control: the Long-Term Benefit Trust elects 4 of 7 directors, against 3 for every shareholder combined13.
- Last private price: $965 billion, the base the $2 trillion IPO target doubles216.
What to watch
Watch SEC EDGAR for the public S-1 itself. It is due at least 15 days before any roadshow, targeted for a Nasdaq debut near mid-November35. The filing will show audited numbers next to the reported ones. Any gap between them will settle more of this argument than any analyst note can.
Sources
- Yahoo Finance, "Anthropic Files Confidential S-1: Joins $3 Trillion AI IPO Race," Yahoo Finance, June 1, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/anthropic-files-confidential-1-joins-161008569.html
- Euronews, "Anthropic priced above $2 trillion as markets eagerly await IPO filing," Euronews, Sept. 17, 2026, https://www.euronews.com/2026/09/17/anthropic-priced-above-2-trillion-as-markets-eagerly-await-ipo-filing
- PYMNTS, "Anthropic Could File IPO Paperwork as Soon as Friday," PYMNTS, Oct. 22, 2026, https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/ipo/2026/anthropic-could-file-ipo-paperwork-as-soon-as-friday/
- TheNextWeb, "Anthropic revenue jumps to more than $11.5 billion in second quarter," TheNextWeb, Aug. 15, 2026, https://thenextweb.com/news/anthropic-q2-2026-revenue-11-5-billion-operating-income
- The Motley Fool, "Why Anthropic Is Racing to IPO While OpenAI Waits Until 2027," The Motley Fool, Oct. 22, 2026, https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/22/why-anthropic-is-racing-to-ipo-while-openai-waits/
- Kyle Guske II, "Anthropic Is The Most Ridiculous IPO of 2026," New Constructs, Oct. 6, 2026, https://www.newconstructs.com/anthropic-is-the-most-ridiculous-ipo-of-2026/
- TheNextWeb, "Anthropic could spend $750bn on compute, The Wall Street Journal reports," TheNextWeb, Oct. 21, 2026, https://thenextweb.com/news/anthropic-s-1-750bn-compute-80-7bn-loss
- Invezz, "Is $2 trillion for Anthropic believable? Three analysts pull apart the number," Finwire, Sept. 26, 2026, https://finwire.io/news/stock-markets-news/is-2-trillion-for-anthropic-believable-three-analysts-pull-apart-the-number
- Fortune, "Amazon and Google have billions riding on Anthropic. The IPO will finally reveal how much.," Fortune, June 4, 2026, https://fortune.com/2026/06/04/amazon-google-billions-anthropic-ipo/
- Anthropic, "Anthropic and Amazon expand compute collaboration," Anthropic, April 20, 2026, https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-amazon-compute
- Amazon, "Amazon announces $5B Anthropic investment, up to $20B more," About Amazon, April 20, 2026, https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/amazon-invests-additional-5-billion-anthropic-ai
- Marco Mari, "Public Purpose and Founder Control at Anthropic," CLS Blue Sky Blog, Columbia Law School, Oct. 2, 2026, http://clsbluesky.law.columbia.edu/2026/10/02/public-purpose-and-founder-control-at-anthropic/
- Tech Times, "Anthropic IPO Buyers Get No Board Control: Super-Voting Founders, Three-Member Trust Govern," Tech Times, Aug. 19, 2026, https://www.techtimes.com/articles/324928/20260819/anthropic-ipo-buyers-get-no-board-control-super-voting-founders-three-member-trust-govern.htm
- Anthropic, "Anthropic raises $30 billion Series G funding, $380 billion post-money valuation," Anthropic, Feb. 12, 2026, https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation
- Anthropic, "Anthropic raises Series F at $183B post-money valuation," Anthropic, Sept. 2, 2025, https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-series-f-at-usd183b-post-money-valuation
- TechCrunch, "Anthropic raises $65 billion, nears $1T valuation ahead of IPO," TechCrunch, May 28, 2026, https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/28/anthropic-raises-65-billion-nears-1t-valuation-ahead-of-ipo/
- TechCrunch, "Anthropic raises $3.5B to fuel its AI ambitions," TechCrunch, March 3, 2025, https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/03/anthropic-raises-3-5b-to-fuel-its-ai-ambitions/