The U.S. government's job projections name AI as a pressure on three creative jobs: writers, graphic designers and photographers.
Film editors, interpreters and musicians look the opposite. The same federal count tracks all six jobs through 2035.
Three Jobs Under AI Pressure
Writers come first. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects flat employment for them through 20351.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics names a cause. "Increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) for writing is projected to dampen demand for these workers," it reports1. Median pay for the job still sits at $76,910 a year.
Graphic designers fare worse. Their ranks are set to fall 2 percent in the same decade. The agency says AI design tools should make designers more productive and cut demand for them2.
A separate employer survey points the same way. The World Economic Forum's 2025 jobs report drew on over 1,000 employers in 55 economies. It placed graphic designers just outside the top 10 fastest-declining jobs through 2030, a first-time prediction13. The report says that may illustrate generative AI's growing capacity to perform knowledge work.
Photographers make the third. The agency expects their ranks to fall 1 percent through 2035. It names smartphone cameras, and says AI-generated images are projected to partly replace stock photos3.
Three Jobs Holding Steady
A different group holds its ground. Film editors sit at the top.
The agency names a different cause for any slowdown among camera operators. Robotic cameras and amateur footage may reduce hiring for that specific job4. Editors themselves keep gaining ground, with a projected 4 percent rise and median pay of $75,420 a year.
Interpreters and translators grow too. Their ranks are set to rise 2 percent through 2035, slower than the average job but still rising5. "Computer tools, including artificial intelligence (AI), are making the work of translators and localization specialists more efficient. However, many of these jobs cannot be entirely automated because computers cannot yet produce work comparable to what human translators do in most cases," the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports.
Musicians and singers hold flat, at 0 percent change through 20356. The agency points elsewhere. Fewer classical concert goers and less church activity may slow growth for the job.
Graphic Designers' Jobs Fall 2 Percent While Film Editors' Jobs Grow 4 Percent
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment projections by occupation, 2025 to 2035
Each bar is one job's projected change through 2035. Magenta bars name AI as one reason, blue is growth in a job AI assists, and gray bars have other causes.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook [1]; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook [2]; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook [3]; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook [4]; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook [5]; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook [6]. Chart by Ryan Elliott Dennis.
The numbers behind this chart
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Writers and Authors | 0% |
| Graphic Designers | −2% |
| Photographers | −1% |
| Film and Video Editors | 4% |
| Interpreters and Translators | 2% |
| Musicians and Singers | 0% |
The Job AI Touches Most Still Grows
Researchers measure how much AI already overlaps a job's tasks. Microsoft's term is applicability.
A high score measures overlap alone. It says AI can already do or help with much of the work. The score says little about whether a person keeps the job.
One 2023 paper on language models and the labor market points the same way. It estimates that software built on language models could speed up 47 to 56 percent of all tasks14.
Microsoft researchers measured that overlap from real use. They studied 200,000 anonymous Bing Copilot chats and matched each to the job tasks it touched10. Interpreters and translators scored highest. Writers and authors also sat near the top.
That score points to interpreters as the job AI overlaps most. The government's own numbers show growth instead. Their ranks are still set to grow 2 percent by 20355.
Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, frames that gap as a choice between workers. "You're not going to lose your job to an AI, but you're going to lose your job to someone who uses AI," Huang said at the Milken Institute's Global Conference in 202511.
Animation Faces a Faster Projected Loss
A projected loss looks like this in animation. CVL Economics surveyed 300 executives and managers in six entertainment industries in late 20237. The share: 21.4 percent of film, television and animation jobs by 2026. That is about 118,500 positions that generative AI is likely to consolidate, replace or eliminate.
CVL Economics Expects AI to Hit 21 Percent of Film, TV and Animation Jobs by 2026
Share of U.S. film, TV and animation jobs CVL Economics expects generative AI to affect by 2026
Source: AWN (Animation World Network) [7]. Chart by Ryan Elliott Dennis.
The numbers behind this chart
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Jobs CVL Economics expects AI to affect | 21.4% |
| Whole | 100% |
Steve Kaplan represents those workers. He is a business representative for the Animation Guild. Kaplan described the union's response after members approved a new contract in December 2024. "The membership made clear to us that there is a need for more focus on Generative Artificial Intelligence, and we will attack the issue through a multi-faceted approach including lobbying for effective legislation, advocating for tax incentives for human-made work and grieving against potential abuses," Kaplan said8.
Months earlier, at a contract rally, Kaplan put the demand in plainer terms. "You told us that addressing the impact of generative AI tools and processes are of the greatest importance and that you want us to make sure jobs in animation are made for human beings and not software routines," he said9.
David Autor reads the same shift differently. He is a professor of economics at MIT. Autor also co-directs labor studies at the National Bureau of Economic Research. "And the good scenario, the way to use AI well, is to enable more people to do valuable decision-making work with this tool," Autor said12.
His case and Kaplan's both fit the record. Animation's union won new contract language on AI. Writing, design and photography show their pressure on a slower federal clock. Both facts stand at once.
What to do
Check which list a job sits on before taking either side. Animation's projected losses come fast and in one place. That is why a union fought for new contract language. Writing's and design's declines are slower and show up in a government count.
Ask what exposure measures before treating a ranking as a verdict. Interpreters score highest in Microsoft's study and are still projected to grow in this piece's data. Exposure counts overlap alone. Pay still goes to whoever finishes the work.
By the numbers
- Graphic designers' job count should fall 2 percent by 2035, with AI design tools among the reasons2.
- Photographers face a similar drop of 1 percent by 2035, with smartphones and AI-generated stock images cited3.
- 118,500 jobs is the film, television and animation count CVL Economics expects generative AI to consolidate, replace or eliminate by 20267.
- Film and video editors grow 4 percent through 2035, the fastest rate in this comparison4.
- First place is where interpreters and translators score among occupations in Microsoft's Bing Copilot study of AI overlap10.
- Their own job count still grows 2 percent through the same decade, BLS projects5.
- 1,000 employers answered the World Economic Forum's 2025 survey. It placed graphic designers just outside the top 10 fastest-declining jobs through 203013.
What to watch
Watch whether Microsoft or another lab publishes occupation-level AI scores with exact figures instead of a ranked list alone. The Animation Guild's next contract cycle will show whether consolidated jobs return as AI-assisted human roles rather than disappearing for good. A study linking exposure scores directly to pay or headcount changes would settle whether exposure predicts loss at all.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Writers and Authors," Occupational Outlook Handbook, Sept. 2025, https://www.bls.gov/ooh/media-and-communication/writers-and-authors.htm
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Graphic Designers," Occupational Outlook Handbook, Sept. 2025, https://www.bls.gov/ooh/arts-and-design/graphic-designers.htm
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Photographers," Occupational Outlook Handbook, Sept. 2025, https://www.bls.gov/ooh/media-and-communication/photographers.htm
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Film and Video Editors and Camera Operators," Occupational Outlook Handbook, Sept. 2025, https://www.bls.gov/ooh/media-and-communication/film-and-video-editors-and-camera-operators.htm
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Interpreters and Translators," Occupational Outlook Handbook, Sept. 2025, https://www.bls.gov/ooh/media-and-communication/interpreters-and-translators.htm
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Musicians and Singers," Occupational Outlook Handbook, Sept. 2025, https://www.bls.gov/ooh/entertainment-and-sports/musicians-and-singers.htm
- Debbie Diamond Sarto, "The Animation Guild Shares 'Generative AI' Economic Impact Study Results," AWN (Animation World Network), Feb. 12, 2024, https://www.awn.com/news/animation-guild-shares-generative-ai-economic-impact-study-results
- Kayla Cobb, "Animation Guild Ratifies New Contract With Studios and Streamers, Increasing Protections From AI," TheWrap, Dec. 23, 2024, https://www.thewrap.com/animation-guild-ratifies-2024-deal/
- TheWrap, "Animation Guild Stands Together as Talks Begin: Rally Report," Aug. 12, 2024, https://www.thewrap.com/animation-guild-members-contract-negotiations-amptp-iatse-rally/
- Kiran Tomlinson, Sonia Jaffe, Will Wang, Scott Counts and Siddharth Suri, "Working with AI: Measuring the Applicability of Generative AI to Occupations," arXiv, July 10, 2025, https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.07935
- Preston Fore, "Microsoft researchers have revealed the 40 jobs most exposed to AI—and even teachers make the list," Fortune, April 28, 2026, https://fortune.com/article/what-are-the-jobs-most-exposed-to-ai-microsoft-researchers-list/
- Meghna Chakrabarti, "How artificial intelligence can help American workers," WBUR, On Point, Dec. 30, 2024, https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2024/12/30/artificial-intelligence-autor-chatgpt-helps-jobs
- World Economic Forum, "The Future of Jobs Report 2025," Jan. 7, 2025, https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_Report_2025.pdf
- Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin, Daniel Rock, "GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models," arXiv, March 17, 2023, https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130