Hollywood already picked its next deadline for AI. Two unions wrote it into their new contracts: 2030.
The Writers Guild's deal runs from May 2, 2026, to May 1, 20301. SAG-AFTRA's runs from July 1, 2026, to June 30, 20302. Three outside forecasts land on the same stretch of calendar.
CISAC, PwC and the World Economic Forum each study a different slice of the same industry. All three expect it to grow by 2030. They split hard on who keeps the gain.
Two Contracts, One End Date
Writers and actors already fought this fight once, in 2023. Their new deals, four years instead of the usual three, carry that fight to 203012.
The Writers Guild's contract keeps its 2023 protections and adds one more. A studio that wants to feed a writer's script to a generative AI system now has to tell the Guild first1.
SAG-AFTRA went further. Producers can only use a synthetic performer when it brings "significant additional value" over a live actor or that actor's own digital double7. Sean Astin, the union's president, said the deal "delivers meaningful gains in compensation, strengthens protections around artificial intelligence and digital identity"2.
Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, the union's executive director, put the goal in plainer terms. The contract would "ensure synthetics remain the exception in our industry instead of the rule," he said7.
Members ratified both deals by wide margins: 90.38 percent for the writers, 91.42 percent for the actors12. SAG-AFTRA also gave up its right to strike over AI again before 20307.
The Market Everyone Expects to Grow
CISAC commissioned a 2024 study of the music and film industries worldwide. Gen AI output in both fields will be worth €64 billion a year by 2028, researchers found, twenty-one times today's €3 billion3.
PwC studied something bigger: the whole entertainment and advertising business, across 53 countries. Researchers there expect that business to reach $4.2 trillion by 2030, growing 3.4 percent a year4. Advertising alone, boosted by AI-driven targeting, should reach $1.4 trillion5.
Hollywood's New AI Contracts Both Expire in 2030
Dated contract and law deadlines named in this piece, May 2026 to August 2027
Each pin marks one dated rule; the two pins on the right show both Hollywood union contracts expiring the same year.
Sources: Screen International [1]; Los Angeles Magazine [2]; Praxikon [12]; euai.app [13]. Chart by Ryan Elliott Dennis.
The numbers behind this chart
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| May 2026 | WGA's new deal starts |
| July 2026 | SAG-AFTRA's deal starts |
| Aug. 2026 | EU's AI labels start |
| Aug. 2027 | EU legacy AI deadline |
| May 2030 | WGA's deal expires |
| June 2030 | SAG-AFTRA's deal expires |
Both studies point the same direction. Machines do more of the work, and the companies around them earn more money. The promise skips the people who make the underlying art.
Who Actually Gets Paid
CISAC put a number on that gap. Music creators could lose 24 percent of their own revenue to Gen AI competition by 2028, the study found. Audiovisual creators face a 21 percent loss3.
Dubbing and subtitling translators face the steepest loss, 56 percent of their revenue8. Screenwriters and directors sit at the other end, 15 to 20 percent.
CISAC Prices Dubbing's 2028 AI Risk at 56%, Screenwriters' at 18%
Share of each role's own revenue CISAC's 2024 study says generative AI puts at risk by 2028
Each bar is one creator role CISAC measured; dubbing and subtitling translators carry the highest share at risk, screenwriters and directors the lowest.
CISAC gives screenwriters and directors a range of 15 to 20 percent; this bar shows the midpoint.
Sources: CISAC [3]; PMP Strategy [8]. Chart by Ryan Elliott Dennis.
The numbers behind this chart
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Dubbing and subtitling translators | 56% |
| Music creators | 24% |
| Audiovisual creators | 21% |
| Screenwriters and directors | 17.5% |
The World Economic Forum's own numbers run a different way. Employers worldwide plan to add 170 million jobs by 2030 and cut 92 million, a net gain of 78 million6. The forum counts creative thinking among the fastest-rising skills employers want, even as some design jobs shrink.
Read together, the four forecasts describe one shift from two angles. The market around art gets richer. That split between who gains and loses tracks each creator's role, the same way across every industry.
The Hopeful Case and the Worried Case
Scott Belsky, Adobe's chief strategy officer, argues creators come out ahead. "I think it will allow creators to produce better work and spend more time exploring new ideas and less time manipulating pixels," he said9. He expects audiences to value human work more, the more machine-made work floods their feeds. "People will come to crave even more the human connection to story, craft, and meaning in art," he said.
SAG-AFTRA@sagaftraThe 2026 TV/Theatrical contract has major gains, from residuals and AI protections to pension benefits and casting improvements. Watch SAG-AFTRA leadership break down key details of the tentative agreement and get more information before you vote at https://t.co/mUQDaQlO8x. pic.twitter.com/atgofwK1Qt
Björn Ulvaeus, CISAC's president and a co-founder of ABBA, argues the opposite. "AI has the power to unlock new and exciting opportunities," he said, "but we have to accept that, if badly regulated, generative AI also has the power to cause great damage to human creators, to their careers and livelihoods"3.
Belsky's case rests on what audiences will want by 2030. Ulvaeus's case rests on euros already modeled in a spreadsheet today. Only one of those numbers carries a currency sign yet.
What to Do
Check your own contract against the two new union templates. The Writers Guild's notice requirement and SAG-AFTRA's "significant additional value" standard both set a floor other industries can borrow, even outside entertainment17.
Weigh your own work against CISAC's categories. A dubbing studio's exposure sits far above a screenwriter's own figure. That gap, between 56 percent and 15 percent, carries the real story8.
Track Congress as closely as Hollywood. The NO FAKES Act would give every performer, union member or independent, a federal right over their own voice and face10.
By the Numbers
- €64 billion: CISAC's forecast for the AI-made music and video market in 2028, up from €3 billion today3.
- Music creators stand to lose 24 percent of their own revenue to Gen AI competition by 2028, CISAC says. Audiovisual creators face a 21 percent loss3.
- CISAC's steepest estimate falls on dubbing and subtitling translators, who face a 56 percent revenue loss by 20288.
- $4.2 trillion: PwC's forecast for global entertainment and media revenue in 20304.
- Employers worldwide plan a net gain of 78 million jobs by 2030, the World Economic Forum says. That is 170 million created, minus 92 million displaced6.
- May 1, 2030 is when the Writers Guild's new contract expires1.
- SAG-AFTRA's new contract runs out a month later, on June 30, 20302.
What to Watch
Watch the U.S. Senate. The NO FAKES Act cleared the Judiciary Committee by a unanimous voice vote on June 18, 2026, and still needs a floor vote10. Harvey Mason jr., the Recording Academy's chief executive, called it "an important next step in ensuring that artists are protected from the spread of harmful replicas online".
Judge Sidney Stein holds the next move in the New York Times' case against OpenAI and Microsoft. Reply briefs land Nov. 20, 2026, ahead of a possible fair-use ruling11.
Aug. 2, 2027 marks the next EU deadline worth circling. Every generative AI model already on the market that day has to meet the bloc's full AI Act rules by then1213.
Sources
- Screen International, "Writers Guild of America members ratify new four-year deal," April 24, 2026, https://www.screendaily.com/news/writers-guild-of-america-members-ratify-new-four-year-deal/5216000.article
- Los Angeles Magazine, "SAG-AFTRA Approves New Contract With Stronger AI Protections," June 5, 2026, https://lamag.com/arts-and-entertainment/sag-aftra-approves-amptp-deal-with-expanded-ai-protections-in-landslide-vote/
- CISAC, "Global economic study shows human creators' future at risk from generative AI," Dec. 4, 2024, https://www.cisac.org/Newsroom/news-releases/global-economic-study-shows-human-creators-future-risk-generative-ai
- BizTechReports, "Global entertainment and media advertising revenues to hit US$1.4 trillion in 2030 as global box office continues recovery (PwC)," July 4, 2026, https://www.biztechreports.com/news-archive/2026/7/1/global-entertainment-and-media-advertising-revenues-to-hit-us14-trillion-in-2030-as-global-box-office-continues-recovery-pwc-july-04-2026
- Cyprus Mail, "PwC forecasts entertainment and advertising revenue to hit $1.4 trillion by 2030," Aug. 27, 2026, https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/08/27/pwc-forecasts-entertainment-and-advertising-revenue-to-hit-1-4-trillion-by-2030
- Mahmoud Hussein, "WEF Future of Jobs 2025: 170M New Jobs, 92M Displaced by 2030," truescho.com, Aug. 19, 2026, https://truescho.com/en/blog/wef-fastest-growing-jobs-report
- RedShark News, "SAG-AFTRA AI deal: what the new contract means," June 8, 2026, https://www.redsharknews.com/sag-aftra-ai-deal-synthetic-actors-2026
- PMP Strategy, "PMP Strategy and CISAC unveil the first global study on the economic impact of Generative AI in the Music and Audiovisual Industries," Dec. 4, 2024, https://www.pmpstrategy.com/en/2024/12/04/pmp-strategy-and-cisac-unveil-the-first-global-study-on-the-economic-impact-of-generative-ai-in-the-music-and-audiovisual-industries/
- Fortune, "Adobe's Scott Belsky: As AI content explodes, reimagined artist's signature will help creatives thrive," Jan. 14, 2025, https://fortune.com/2025/01/14/adobe-content-credentials-creative-careers-ai/
- GRAMMY.com, "NO FAKES Act Passes Senate Judiciary Committee By Unanimous Voice Vote," June 18, 2026, https://www.grammy.com/news/no-fakes-act-passes-senate-judiciary-committee/
- openclassactions.com, "New York Times vs. OpenAI and Microsoft: Where the Lawsuit Stands," Oct. 6, 2026, https://openclassactions.com/news/new-york-times-openai-microsoft-copyright-lawsuit.php
- Praxikon, "Article 50 EU AI Act: official text, duties and deadlines," Aug. 2, 2026, https://www.praxikon.com/en/ai-act/artikel/50
- euai.app, "EU AI Act Timeline & When Obligations Kick In: Tracker-Style Explainer," June 19, 2026, https://euai.app/timeline