Adam Kobeissi broke the news just after midnight Friday. His account, The Kobeissi Letter, posted: "Major investors are 'increasingly skeptical' that Anthropic's IPO can proceed at the expected valuation of $1.5 trillion after today's market drop, per WSJ." One buyer, the post added, wants the price down to $1 trillion1.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetterBREAKING: Major investors are “increasingly skeptical” that Anthropic’s IPO can proceed at the expected valuation of $1.5 trillion after today’s market drop, per WSJ.
One major investor said Anthropic’s valuation will need to come down to $1 trillion.
This marks a major…
The timing explains the alarm. Hours earlier, the Nasdaq Composite sank 5.5 percent and fell into a slump. The Magnificent Seven lost more than $1 trillion in one trading day. Nvidia alone lost more than $440 billion of that total2.
A Rout Anthropic Walked Into
Tuesday's elections started Thursday's rout. Anthropic's own numbers entered the fight later. Democratic wins raised fears of tighter rules on AI data centers. PYMNTS reported that the fear spread to every AI-linked stock on the board4.
Three big IPO buyers told the Journal that Anthropic will come up short of its $1.5 trillion target. Reuters separately found that four people close to the talks doubt the roadshow next week. They doubt the November listing too3.
Anthropic skipped PYMNTS's request for comment on the reports. Dario Amodei, the company's co-founder and chief executive, has built Anthropic's public pitch on Claude's revenue growth. Claude's pitch now meets a market pricing every AI name lower in one afternoon4.
The Math Behind the Discount
Here is the math driving the fight. Anthropic's third-quarter revenue runs near $17 billion a year5.
Anthropic's revenue multiple works out to 14.7 at a $1 trillion price. That figure rises to 22.1 at $1.5 trillion. Their gap comes to $500 billion, about a third of the higher number5.
Anthropic's IPO Target Falls From $2 Trillion to $1 Trillion in 34 Days
Valuation figures investors and Anthropic's bankers discussed for its IPO, in trillions of dollars, Oct. 3 to Nov. 6, 2026
Each point is a valuation figure reported on that date; the line drops each time investors or the market pushed the number down.
Each point comes from investors or advisers speaking anonymously to reporters, short of a price Anthropic itself has confirmed.
Sources: X / The Kobeissi Letter [1]; 24/7 Wall St. [6]; The Motley Fool [7]. Chart by Ryan Elliott Dennis.
The numbers behind this chart
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| Oct. 3 | $2.0T |
| Oct. 15 | $1.5T |
| Nov. 6 | $1.0T |
That gap has old roots. Anthropic and its bankers once discussed a $2 trillion price and a $100 billion raise. Reporters first wrote about that target in early October7.
Buyers trimmed that number to $1.5 trillion on Oct. 15, three weeks before Thursday's crash6. Thursday's selloff trimmed it again, by roughly another third.
A Warning Priced In Early
David Trainer made this case in October, before Anthropic's bankers ever cut their own number. Trainer runs New Constructs, a research firm that grades public companies on cash profit over marketing hype8. New Constructs built its name calling out inflated accounting at other firms years before their stocks fell. Trainer treats Anthropic's own filing the same way.
"Since the arrival of open-source models, it's been clear that the closed models would struggle to generate profits," Trainer said8.
He went further on Anthropic's original $2 trillion target. "While Anthropic offers more to society than WeWork ever did, at a $2 trillion valuation, its IPO presents far bigger risks and is positioned to be a far bigger rip off of U.S. capital markets," Trainer said8.
Buyers have since cut that target by a quarter, then floated cutting it again Thursday. Trainer's October math reads closer to today's market than Anthropic's own bankers did five weeks ago. Anthropic has stayed quiet on Trainer's math in public, and its own bankers still favor the higher end of the range.
The Case the Cut Is Routine
Rick Meckler reads the same chart and sees routine weather instead of panic. He is a partner at Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Jersey3.
"It's not like these companies are not going to be a part of the future. They're going to become public. Investors are still going to have a lot of interest in them. Valuations have risen for a long time in the private market, and we'll probably see some pullback," Meckler told Reuters3.
The Magnificent Seven's one-day loss comes to $1,000 billion. Nvidia's $440 billion share is the single biggest piece2.
Nvidia's Loss Equals 44 Percent of the Magnificent Seven's One-Day Rout
Market value lost Thursday, Nov. 5, 2026, among the Magnificent Seven, in billions of dollars
Both figures are floors CNBC reported as 'more than,' so Nvidia's true share may run higher.
Source: CNBC [2]. Chart by Ryan Elliott Dennis.
The numbers behind this chart
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Nvidia's loss | $440B |
| Whole | $1,000B |
Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, named the mood on trading desks this week. "We are now seeing something of a buyers' strike in tech," Lerner said. Tech stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by 10.7 percent over the past month. That gap is the widest in one month since May 2002, by his count3.
Lerner called the selling uncomfortable. He stopped short of calling it abnormal. "The rubber band is getting stretched," he said3.
Meckler and Trainer read the same facts two ways. He expects Anthropic to go public anyway, to buyers still willing to pay once the price settles. Trainer's October math said the price needed to fall long before Thursday arrived, and the crash made his argument easier to repeat.
What to do
Treat $1 trillion as the number worth studying, instead of $1.5 trillion. Divide any price you're offered by Anthropic's third-quarter revenue pace, near $17 billion a year.
Compare that multiple to what public software companies trade at today. Ask your adviser which number Anthropic's own bankers are defending this week. Their answer shows where the talks stand.
Wait for Anthropic's October revenue figure before judging the roadshow itself. The October figure will show whether the growth behind either price still holds, more than one bad Thursday on the Nasdaq does. A slipped roadshow would say more about buyer patience than about Claude's own business.
By the numbers
- $1 trillion: the price one big buyer wants for Anthropic, down from $1.5 trillion, after Thursday's selloff1.
- 5.5 percent: how far the Nasdaq Composite fell Thursday, entering a slump2.
- $440 billion: Nvidia's own loss inside the Magnificent Seven's $1 trillion rout2.
- 14.7 times: Anthropic's revenue multiple at a $1 trillion price, against 22.1 times at $1.5 trillion5.
- $100 billion: the IPO raise Anthropic and its bankers discussed in early October, at a $2 trillion target7.
- 10.7 percent: how far tech stocks trailed the S&P 500 over the past month, the widest gap since May 20023.
What to watch
Watch Anthropic's October revenue figure, the number both sides are waiting on before the roadshow. The final price range in Anthropic's S-1 deserves a look too. It will show how much of Thursday's crash survives into the IPO itself.
Sources
- The Kobeissi Letter, "BREAKING: Major investors are increasingly skeptical that Anthropic's IPO can proceed at the expected valuation of $1.5 trillion after today's market drop, per WSJ," X, Nov. 6, 2026, https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2118500612996243692
- Sean Conlon, Gina Francolla, Christopher Hayes and Nick Wells, "Magnificent 7 loses $1 trillion. The most eye-popping stats from Thursday's tech stock plunge," CNBC, Nov. 5, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/stock-market-selloff-ai-fears.html
- Echo Wang, Krystal Hu and Milana Vinn, "Exclusive-AI backlash could threaten Anthropic IPO timing, potential investors say," Reuters via AOL, Nov. 6, 2026, https://www.aol.com/articles/exclusive-ai-backlash-could-threaten-234132000.html
- PYMNTS, "Anthropic IPO Faces $500 Billion Valuation Hit After Tech Stocks Plunge," PYMNTS, Nov. 5, 2026, https://www.pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2026/anthropic-ipo-faces-500-billion-valuation-hit-after-tech-stocks-plunge/
- Gennaro Cuofano, "One Anthropic IPO Investor Floats $1T, 14.7x Its Q3 Pace," FourWeekMBA, Nov. 6, 2026, https://fourweekmba.com/ai-one-anthropic-ipo-investor-floats-1t-14-7x-its-q3-pace/
- Omor Ibne Ehsan, "Some Anthropic Investors Now See a $1.5 Trillion IPO, Not $2 Trillion," 24/7 Wall St., Oct. 16, 2026, https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/16/some-anthropic-investors-now-see-a-1-5-trillion-ipo-not-2-trillion/
- Manali Pradhan, CFA, "Anthropic Could Raise Up to $100 Billion in Its November IPO," The Motley Fool, Oct. 3, 2026, https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/03/anthropic-could-raise-up-to-100-billion-in-its-nov/
- Isabel O'Brien, "Anthropic will be 'most ridiculous IPO' of year, analyst says," CNBC, Oct. 7, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/anthropic-will-be-most-ridiculous-ipo-of-year-analyst-says.html
