MNX went live on Tuesday, Oct. 13, CoinDesk reported1. The exchange sells futures tied to four private AI labs: OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek and Moonshot1. All four keep their shares private. The contracts expire at the end of 20271. MNX runs on MegaETH, a blockchain, and raised $6.4 million in June in a round Village Global led1. Its founder, Stephen Grugett, co-founded the forecasting site Manifold Markets2. MNX went live 113 days after Coinbase opened its own contracts on OpenAI and Anthropic4.
What MNX Sells
A future is a bet on a price at a set date. Picture a trader who thinks OpenAI will be worth more by December 2027. That trader buys the OpenAI contract today and profits if the price rises before it expires. MNX lets traders open positions up to three times the size of their own funds, which raises both gains and losses1.
Most rival contracts run forever. They are perpetual futures, or perps, which charge a recurring funding fee between buyers and sellers4. MNX dropped that fee by setting one end date1. Prices form from trading on MNX itself, apart from any outside price feed1.
An end date raises a question. What happens if a lab is still private at the end of 2027? MNX then settles on public valuations from funding rounds, investment funds or secondary sales1. As a last resort, MNX sets the price itself, under a published review process1. CoinDesk's Olivier Acuna flagged the gap that leaves: a settlement price may differ from what a buyer would pay for real shares1.
U.S. customers stay blocked for now1. MNX also plans markets on AI company revenue, jobs, housing, the AI supply chain and computing capacity1. Grugett told CoinDesk it plans to get the licenses it needs1.
The Venues Before It
Chart 1
MNX went live 113 days after Coinbase opened contracts on OpenAI and Anthropic
Dated launches, closures and deadlines for contracts on private AI labs, June 2026 to the end of 2027
Each mark is one dated event, spaced by real time; the magenta mark is MNX's launch and the last mark is the date its contracts expire.
Sources: CoinDesk [1]; Crypto Briefing [3]; Barchart [4]. Chart by The AILately.com Desk.
The numbers behind this chart
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| June 2026 | Ventuals shuts OpenAI, Anthropic perps |
| June 22, 2026 | Coinbase opens OpenAI, Anthropic perps |
| Aug. 24, 2026 | EntropyIO lists an Anthropic perp |
| Oct. 13, 2026 | MNX goes live. Dated futures on OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek and Moonshot |
| Dec. 2027 | MNX contracts expire |
MNX joins a crowded field. OKX and Bitget, two large crypto exchanges, already sell contracts on private AI companies1. Coinbase opened OpenAI and Anthropic perps on June 22 for traders outside the U.S.4. Ventuals, a market on Hyperliquid, shut its OpenAI and Anthropic perps that same month3.
EntropyIO tried next. It launched an Anthropic perp on Hyperliquid on Aug. 24, with leverage capped at three times3. Its OpenAI contract went the other way. EntropyIO delisted it for inactivity before a single trade, Crypto Briefing reported3.
Who Sets the Price
Anthropic shows how far apart these prices sit. A private funding round in May valued it near $965 billion, The Crypto Times reported5. Shortly after EntropyIO launched, its contract briefly implied a value near $2 trillion3. The research firm New Constructs put fair value near $150 billion in an Oct. 6 report5.
Chart 2
Anthropic's price runs from $150 billion to about $2 trillion, depending on who sets it
Three readings of Anthropic's value, billions of dollars: an analyst's estimate, a private round and a crypto contract
Each bar is one reading of what Anthropic is worth; the magenta bar is the value a pre-IPO crypto contract implied shortly after launch.
Sources: Crypto Briefing [3]; The Crypto Times [5]. Chart by The AILately.com Desk.
The numbers behind this chart
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| New Constructs fair value | $150B | |
| May private funding round | $965B | |
| EntropyIO contract, after launch | $2,000B | About $2 trillion |
New Constructs built its case on figures from a leaked draft prospectus, The Crypto Times reported5. "We don't think Anthropic has a viable business," the firm concluded5. Reports put Anthropic's potential IPO valuation near $2 trillion, the same outlet wrote5. One company now carries three prices, set by investors, traders and analysts.
What the Labs Have Said
OpenAI has already drawn a line on synthetic exposure. In July 2025, Robinhood offered tokens tied to OpenAI to users in the European Union6. OpenAI's newsroom answered on X. "These 'OpenAI tokens' are not OpenAI equity," the account wrote. "We did not partner with Robinhood, were not involved in this, and do not endorse it. Any transfer of OpenAI equity requires our approval—we did not approve any transfer. Please be careful."6.
MNX contracts make a narrower claim. They pay out on a price, and the holder owns a contract rather than a share1. Coinbase's perps work the same way. In its design, a mark of 1,800 stands for a $1.8 trillion valuation, Barchart explained4.
The Case For and the Case Against
Grugett argues that dated futures fit private labs better than perps. "OpenAI, Anthropic secondaries are illiquid and hard to price," Grugett told CoinDesk. "A perp based on an illiquid, stale price is worse than meaningless: it doesn't behave the way investors expect; it's easy to manipulate; and it may have a very high and unpredictable funding rate."1.
His backer frames the larger bet. "AI is driving one of the largest investment cycles in history, despite the financial infrastructure around it remaining quite underdeveloped," said Max Kilberg of Village Global12. Village Global sees room to build financial markets around AI, beyond one more prediction market, Kilberg told CoinDesk1.
Rob Isbitts, a Barchart columnist, judged Coinbase's version of the product in June. "If the recent SPCX IPO is any indication, my suspicion is this has a better chance of being good news for COIN than for many retail traders, who may be drawn in by the pre-IPO action, rather than solid investment hygiene," Isbitts wrote4. He named his own position plainly. "Perpetual futures fall into the category of something I won't be chasing with my money, but I can't tell you what to do with yours," he wrote4.
The record gives each side a data point. EntropyIO's OpenAI contract drew zero trades3. A May pricing and oracle incident on a Ventuals SpaceX market set off liquidations, and Ventuals pledged to compensate traders5.
What Each Side Needs
Grugett's case needs MNX's order books to fill with real volume on all four labs. It also needs a fair settlement if a lab stays private past 20271. Isbitts's case needs retail traders to lose more than they gain as these markets spread4. A first public listing by OpenAI or Anthropic before expiry would test both views against one real price.
By the numbers
- 4: private AI labs with MNX contracts, OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek and Moonshot1.
- 3x: the most leverage MNX allows1.
- $6.4 million: MNX's June funding, led by Village Global1.
- 113 days: the gap between Coinbase's June 22 launch and MNX's Oct. 13 launch14.
- $150 billion to about $2 trillion: the spread of Anthropic values in this piece35.
What to watch
- MNX's first published settlement review, if a lab stays private into late 20271.
- Trading volume on each of MNX's four contracts, starting with DeepSeek and Moonshot1.
- A response from OpenAI or Anthropic to MNX, as OpenAI gave Robinhood in July 20256.
Sources
- Olivier Acuna, "MegaETH-powered MNX goes live with pre-IPO futures for OpenAI, Anthropic and DeepSeek," CoinDesk, Oct. 13, 2026, https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/13/new-crypto-exchange-takes-on-okx-bitget-with-unique-way-to-trade-ai-giants
- Crypto Briefing, "MNX raises $6.4M to build a futures exchange dedicated entirely to AI assets," Crypto Briefing, June 10, 2026, https://cryptobriefing.com/mnx-raises-6m-ai-futures-exchange/
- Crypto Briefing, "EntropyIO lists pre-IPO perps on Hyperliquid, but OpenAI contract was delisted before anyone traded it," Crypto Briefing, Sept. 2, 2026, https://cryptobriefing.com/entropyio-pre-ipo-perps-hyperliquid/
- Rob Isbitts, "Coinbase Is Offering Pre-IPO Perpetual Futures on OpenAI and Anthropic. That's Better News for COIN Stock Than It Is for You.," Barchart, June 23, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/coinbase-offering-pre-ipo-perpetual-142645858.html
- The Crypto Times, "Is Anthropic Worth $2T? Analyst Doubts the IPO Crypto Already Trades," The Crypto Times, Oct. 13, 2026, https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/10/13/is-anthropic-worth-2t-analyst-doubts-the-ipo-crypto-already-trades/
- Maxwell Zeff, "OpenAI condemns Robinhood's 'OpenAI tokens'," TechCrunch, July 2, 2025, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openai-condemns-robinhood-openai-tokens-234327712.html